The power of a name

Imagine if:

the iPhone had been called the iTouch Mobile
the iPod Touch had been called the iTouch Express
the iPad had been called the iTouch Pro
and the iPhone OS had been called the iTouch OS.

And if in January 2007, Steve Jobs had introduced the revolutionary new "Apple iTouch" platform and the first device to run it- which happened to also be a mobile phone.

And if later that year, Apple introduced the second device on the platorm: the iTouch Express, which is what you can accomplish with thickness and lower price if you drop the legacy cell phone functionality and 20th century mobile network concept completely.

You see where I'm going with this.

By calling the iPhone the iPhone, Apple set in motion a chain of events that- intentionally or not- allowed Steve Jobs to reinvent the entire personal computer in plain sight.

Microsoft would have gone the other way, promoting the platform. Which is pretty much all they could do, since they can't contol the entire platform down to the hardware level.

So the ultimate irony is that while Microsoft is known as the platform company, it's really Apple with it's OS X and touch device platform that's created the next mass market computer platform to follow Windows. They just did it one product at a time.

Thoughts on the iPad

Imagine that the iPhone didn't exist.

Now imagine that Apple held a press event and announced that they were coming out with a totally new computing platform that would do to the Mac and Windows what those platforms did to the Apple II and DOS.

This platform would be dramatically simpler and human in design compared to the mouse, file, and folder-based systems of the past. It would seamlessly provide instant access to all of the forms of online information and digital entertainment that typical consumers have come to use personal computers for in the decades since the earlier platforms were created.

Like any new platform, it would lack much of what its predecessor had- partially by design, and partly due to immaturity. And some of those omissions would seem crippling from certain points of view, for reasons ranging from the functional to the political.

All hallmarks of a generational shift.

The iPad is Apple's first true next-generation computer, pure and simple. And with today's announcement, it is now clear that Apple's vision for its next-generation computer platform has been plainly on display since we first met the iPhone three Januaries hence.

PS:

The fact that it supports external keyboards is the ultimate signifier that the iPad is a next-generation computer replacement. Without the ability to use a real keyboard, I'm not sure a platform would be able to generate quite enough momentum to escape the gravitational pull of what came before.

My take on the January Apple "tablet" event

Happy 2010 everyone. Now that I have two babies at home, I have an even better excuse for late-night writing.

Here are my hopes (and best-case-imaginable "predictions") for the upcoming Apple announcement on January 27:

Steve Jobs kicks it off: "Today we're here to talk about computers. A new decade. The fifth decade Apple has been making computers."

Then a quick recap of Apple's successes over those decades, from the Apple II to the Mac to the iPod to Mac OS X and the iPhone. And a quick recap of the iTunes Store, mentioning that the 3 billionth iPhone app was recently sold, as well as impressive figures about music, TV shows, and movies sold to date. Concludes that at the moment, with the iPod nano, iPod touch, iPhone, iMac, and MacBook lines, coupled with iLife software and the iTunes Store (and all of the great Mac and iPhone apps developers have created), Apple has successfully fulfilled the digital hub strategy it set for the last decade. It was a pretty great decade. What was the magic ingredient? Software. And it's software that will drive the next decade of innovation as computers continue to evolve.

And now on to the new stuff.

Begins with the very bottom of the Mac line: the Mac Mini.

Introduces a next-generation Mac Mini.
Includes HDMI output.
1TB hard drive standard (options for internal 2TB and maybe a slick way to pool additional storage via USB).
Maybe includes Blu-ray drive- or maybe includes no optical drive at all.
Features a version of Mac OS X Snow Leopard with next-generation Apple TV functionality (Front Row) that allows the device to function as an Apple TV when connected to a large screen.
Functions as a Time Capsule device.
Maybe certain models also function as an AirPort Extreme.

Next up, the big one. Talks about how computers have gone down in size to fit in your pocket, and up in size from laptops to large screens and TVs. What about the "tablet" size? People have tried it. Briefly touches on a few failed approaches, including the classic "pen" touch interface Microsoft was peddling a while ago (and which many tablets still use). Ridicules them (and makes a comment or joke about the Apple Newton). Then talks about netbooks. Ridicules them too. This whole segment feels like the the tongue-in-cheek look at the then-current state of the smartphone market at the time of the iPhone's introduction at Macworld 2007. Maybe Jobs even mentions that- shows a lineup of smartphones pre-iPhone announcement, then shows a lineup of industry-leading smartphones post-iPhone. Notice how they all look like the iPhone now. Talks about how with the iPhone, Apple reinvented the phone interface to be human and flexible. Something you love using. Doing that required a lot of processing power and sophisticated software on the device. Again ridicules the experience of running Windows on a netbook ("it's like a baby computer"). So, Apple has created a new device, with incredible hardware- and breakthrough software.

First talks about the incredible hardware.
Introduces the MacBook Touch (aka "the tablet"):
It's more like a large iPod Touch than a Mac, but it's marketed as a Mac.
10" aluminum unibody enclosure
High-DPI Multi-touch screen- the highest resolution screen on the market, better even than the Nexus One
ARM-powered CPU
"Killer graphics" (NVIDIA Tegra 2 platform?)
Large SSD hard drive (size varies based on model)
At least 2GB of RAM
GPS
Accelerometer and magnetometer
802.11N WiFi
Front and rear-mounted cameras
Empty SIM-card slot to allow mobile data network support

Now talks about the breakthrough software.
A new OS, based on the next generation iPhone OS and including elements of "desktop" Mac OS X, and running a new interface that is an evolution of the iPhone OS interface. The interface will make heavy use of zooming in and out to navigate apps and content and to show off the incredibly high DPI display, and the resolution-independence of apps and content optimized for the device.
Runs iPhone OS apps (in regular size and in a new full-screen size, which will be made available through the iPhone OS SDK).
Allows apps to run in the background (a global switch for background apps is available for users to set- all on or all off- as well as on a per-app basis; will work like the push/fetch functionality in the current iPhone OS). When the device begins to run low on battery, it will automatically disable background processing.
Also runs a new class of apps that are essentially Mac OS X apps with a revised interface suited to the MacBook Touch's dimensions and functionality (such as touch and speech interface, abstracted file system, etc.). It will be relatively easy for Mac OS X developers to create these new interfaces for their apps, assuming their apps are well-written Cocoa apps. And easy for iPhone app developers to adapt their iPhone apps "up" to the MacBook Touch. All of this will be done as seamlessly as possible through Xcode.
In the end, from the user's perspective they're all just "apps", all supported natively on the new OS- and all sold through the app store, which is the only way to add software to the device.
iLife Touch to come with all devices.
iWork Touch available through the app store (for $29.99?).
New UI features include support for augmented reality at the OS level.
Impressive demos from Apple and select 3rd party vendors showcase how augmented reality, along with touch and speech support, make up a whole new class of user experience.
iTunes Touch provides support for augmented reality and social networking. Easily "see" the music that is playing around you (point your device at someone who's using their own device, and see what they're listening to). Twitter and Facebook (and so on) can tap into this augmented reality functionality through an OS API.
Heavy-duty privacy settings are included and default to totally private.

Big enhancements to the iTunes Store to correspond.
iTunes Music Pass- $19.99 a month for unlimited access to (most) music in the iTunes Store. You get to download the music and keep it on up to 5 devices (as opposed to streaming only). If you like a song and want to keep it (aka "buy" it outright), you can do so any time for a discounted price (i.e. a $0.99 song can be bought for $0.69).
iTunes TV Pass- $29.99 a month for unlimited access to a subset of TV programming, depending on which networks participate.
A new category of iTunes item is announced that enables publishers to create new types of media for sale through the iTunes Store. Super high-res multi-touch newspapers and magazines are one example (The New York Times is featured). The format is based on open standards, building upon the iTunes "LP" format unveiled in 2009. Heavy use of HTML 5 and WebKit, and very slick touch and audio-based interface capabilities.
Content and interface can be scaled from iPod Touch and iPhone, up through MacBook Touch, all the way up to TVs (Apple TV/Mac Mini). Also plays in iTunes on Macs and Windows.

Now back to the new Mac Mini (Apple TV). Remember how it had a new Apple TV interface for using on TVs? But what about an interface for smaller screens?
Introduces a new feature on the MacBook Touch that enables it to serve as a complete interface to the Mac Mini (and any Mac). Can run a remote desktop full-screen on the touch surface and control it with some new touch enhancements to Mac OS X that will debut on the new Mac Mini. Initial functionality includes support for screen zooming and basic touch navigation that make it far more practical to use the traditional Mac OS X interface (and applications) with touch control.
Through MobileMe, people can use their MacBook Touches to remotely connect to and control their other Macs. In essence, any network-connected MacBook Touch can connect to and assume the identity of any Mac the user has access to that is running the updated Mac OS X software (again, existing Macs will not get a completely new interface- just a modestly touch-enhanced version of the Mac OS X interface to make it more practical to use through other devices without a mouse or physical keyboard).

One more thing...
MobileMac service announced. Includes a virtualized instance of Mac OS X (running on blazing hardware) that users can subscribe to through MobileMe. The MobileMac can be connected to through any Mac, Windows, or Linux computer through screen sharing. And also from any MacBook Touch.
It's positioned as a great way for people who want to run "the best desktop software in the world" to do so in a centralized, managed environment- accessible through any computer or MacBook Touch device. It's a way to give everyone access to the phenomenal Mac software without needing to buy a new computer. (Windows users, we're looking at you.) It's your Mac in the cloud. Users will be able to connect most of their local devices (such as printers, optical drives, and memory cards) to the MobileMac over the net.
Because of bandwidth constraints, it's not (yet) appropriate for games or media apps- for those, traditional Macs will remain the best solution.

Steve Jobs concludes by summarizing where Apple is headed in the new decade. The Mac remains the core of Apple's computing experience. Mac OS X will continue to evolve, and new Macs that run Mac OS X and use traditional computer form factors (MacBook/MacBook Pros and Mac Pros) will continue to be released. There will be a need for those types of "classic desktop" applications and systems for the foreseeable future. But the next generation will be the devices that run the new OS and use the new interfaces. Perhaps the new OS is called something like OS XI. And perhaps Apple hints at (or even announces) a new iMac that runs OS XI.

That's basically the flow for the January event.

A few odds and ends:

"Dedicated" devices will be discussed at some point, probably in the intro to the MacBook Touch. The 2000s were the decade for great dedicated devices, beginning with the iPod and culminating with devices like the Kindle. Jobs will mention that while some of those devices are very good at certain very specific things, the future belongs to flexible devices, like the iPod touch, the iPhone, and devices running the new OS XI (starting with the MacBook Touch).

The app store will be discussed, and an allusion will be made to some of the challenges Apple has faced with their developers as the app store has taken shape. This is a whole new concept, and there have been growing pains. Two bits of news on this point: 1, approval times have been and will continue to be dramatically reduced. Geometrically so. 2, a new category of app will be introduced that allows developers to bypass the app store review process. These apps will still go through a technical scan to ensure they're built within Apple's programming guidelines and are not blatantly malware. (Perhaps this scan is part of the Xcode compilation process developers use to create the apps themselves, and apps that "pass" the scans locally are digitally signed and then allowed to be uploaded instantly to the app store.) The MacBook Touch OS will treat such apps a little more securely by default- all security and functionality settings exposed by the OS (such as the ability to run in the background) will be set to their most conservative. Content ratings for these apps will be set to the most restrictive by default- though users will be able to soften the content ratings for these apps on an app by app basis. But basically, aside from the technical scan, these apps will bypass the Apple approval process for rapid (even near-instant) approval and publishing to the app store. This method- introduced now as a way for developers to publish with more flexibility- will quickly become the standard method of publishing apps on the app store, paving the way for Apple to eventually get out of the controversial manual app review process and mitigate the potential threat posed by Google's Android platform and other, more "open" approaches to app stores.

Steve Jobs will step down as Apple's CEO in 2010. Probably not announced at the January event. He will remain at Apple with a title like "co-founder" and will continue to advise as the company moves forward- but he will not have day to day responsibilities.

iPhone OS 4.0 will be announced, bringing elements of the new OS XI to iPhones and iPod touches (in varying degrees, based on the device). It will ship right around the MacBook Touch launch window. A beta SDK will be released imminently, alongside the SDK for OS XI.

Further out in the year, new iPod touches and iPhones will be released that are refined to exploit iPhone OS 4.0. They will have dramatically better battery life compared to previous generation devices.

Mac OS X 10.7 will be announced and released at some point this year. It will be a very subtle refinement from 10.6 from the traditional OS point of view- but it will be support all of the functionality described above that enables Macs that run it to interact with devices running OS XI.

As mentioned earlier, a new generation of iMac will be released at some point in 2010. It may include a multi-touch screen, but will be designed to be controlled optimally by devices running OS XI, just like the new Mac Mini. The new iMac will run a "desktop" version of OS XI that is basically Mac OS X 10.7 and OS XI on one device, allowing the iMac to function as a traditional Mac running traditional Mac software, and as a next-generation device that can run OS XI apps.

Ah...

Okay, fantasy complete now, time to go change some diapers. ;)

The end of this decade

This was a "decade of uncertainty".

Over the past ten years, people found new levels of doubt and cynicism, but also found new levels of hope shining through the cracks of said uncertainty.

The next decade looks to be one of rapid, profound, and sometimes unexpected levels of change at the most basic levels of the human experience. The tone and tenor of these changes is up for debate.

On a personal note, I embrace hope for the future, and all that it brings.

Happy new year, 2010.

-Jeff

President George H. W. Bush rhymes us into our first war with Iraq

Thanks

This year, "thankful" doesn't seem to go far enough for me.

I am grateful for so much.

Celebrate!

A military solution to the Great Recession

Check out this editorial from The New York Times about the jobs situation our country is facing now. It does a good job of painting the economic landscape clearly and succinctly.

President Obama is looking for "bold, innovative action" to put the country back on track.

Here's what's currently on the table:

• stimulus spending
• tax incentives for businesses
• targeted incentives for industries that represent high growth potential (such as energy)
• healthcare reform
• education reform (not currently being pushed as strongly as the others, but doubtless to come soon)
• immigration reform (ditto)

All of these things are important ingredients. Critical, in fact.

But for whatever reason, politicians on both sides are ignoring the single most effective tool for big-time stimulus: the military.

It was military spending that got us out of the Great Depression, and which has kept America in a global leadership position ever since.

I'm not talking about going out and starting unnecessary wars or militarizing our society.

But think about it this way. An ambitious, strategic investment in the US military would result in a number of very positive outcomes.

1. Resource issues for Iraq and Afghanistan could be mitigated. Our current, relatively small pool of soldiers is tapped out from multiple deployments to multiple warzones for the better part of a decade, with little end in sight- save for large-scale retreats from those theaters. To preserve our military primacy, to give President Obama the widest range of options to choose from when planning our foreign policy, and to prevent our military from going down the path of the Soviet military following the end of the Cold War, we need more of the world's greatest soldiers. And there are a lot of people who are looking for jobs now who would be able to serve.
2. The military has historically been a leading R&D laboratory for our private industry. Key advances in science, medicine, and technology came about due to the military's massive R&D budgets during the cold war. That expenditure has tapered off dramatically over the past 20 years, and with it, much of America's competitive advantage in those areas has been eliminated. Fields like green energy, battery technology, and medicine could benefit dramatically from military research.
3. Education. The military has traditionally provided young people with education and other career-oriented benefits in exchange for service.
4. And so forth.

So I think the Administration should enact a bold new program that provides for the creation of a large number of new military jobs (not all of which would be soldiers- not by a long shot); a large amount of military stimulus funding tied to the achievement of specific innovation benchmarks; and a new mandate to continue to keep America safe by doing three things: 1) kicking ass harder than ever when necessary; 2) providing a world-best elite research program around energy, technology, and medicine; 3) finding more ways to leverage the military's assets (people and technology) to further America's soft power around the world through humanitarian programs and other initiatives aimed at preventing war.

Perhaps the best part of all of this: I'm hard pressed to imagine Republicans complaining too much about the government increasing military spending.

So, this approach would pump a ton of money through the economy. It would do so in a manner that addresses many if not most of our key security and strategic challenges. And if done correctly, it could be pulled off in a way where liberals get to expand the size of government to solve our problems, and conservatives get to expand the only part of government they feel is worth keeping strong.

Win-win?

Obama and the Nobel Peace Prize

By awarding President Obama the Nobel Peace Prize, the awarding committee has acknowledged two things:

1. Considering what Obama stands for- his tone, his style, his vision, his ability to inspire- the fact that this man was able to successfully win the leadership position of the United States of America at this point in world history says something remarkably positive about the direction the world has the potential to move in.
2. The act of awarding the prize is an intentional, direct effort on behalf of the committee to help push the world in that direction.

I believe the committee feels that those two things are true. The rest is subjective and will be judged by everyone the world over.

I think it was a bold decision, and I applaud it.

Cool cloud formation

Courtesy Andrew Sullivan.

Eight years ago

No Agenda

I've talked about the No Agenda podcast before. It's entertaining.

They run a listener-supported (as opposed to ad-supported) model for the show and I contributed to them yesterday. I also asked if they wouldn't mind plugging my story OFF, which deals with subject matter that's popular on the show.

They obliged, and I am much obliged.

Here's the snippet from yesterday's show where I got the shout-out.

So for $100, I got to hear John C. Dvorak read my name, and Adam Curry's velvety tones say "okay" in reference to posting a reciprocal link to my story on their site. Well worth it.

If you like the kind of stuff that I like, you'll like No Agenda. I urge you to support them.

And if not No Agenda, I urge you to take this opportunity to reach out and support at least one donor-supported organization out there in the world that appeals to your interests. Do it right now.

Here's a good one from my friend Amanda.

My basic thinking on the torture debate

This CNN article got me thinking about how best to express my feelings about our government's involvement with torture since 9/11.

All countries will do whatever they can when threatened. And I believe any country would occasionally go "over the line" in doing so. Pretending that that's not true is naive (respectfully).

As long as we allow voices inside our country to try to keep us honest, and as long as we reaffirm our ideals and our morality when we've had some time to adjust to the threat, then I think that's what we want. And I think that's what we have now.

Bush and Obama have been an effective yin and yang.

We should learn about what happened, and we should change our policies where necessary as a result. We should investigate situations where brutality seems to have been perpetrated for the purpose of sadism above all else.

We should apologize to those we harmed who were innocent.

We should do all of this, and we should make these lessons a part of our moral fabric as Americans as we move forward through all of the threats that remain.

And we should do this in a quiet, dignified manner, politely in the background, while the brunt of our efforts are on the moving forward part.

OFF

A short story I wrote about what things might be like in the aftermath of an EMP attack.

Leo Laporte

Time to give a shout-out to Leo Laporte.

I've been a regular listener of a number of Leo's technology podcasts- including This Week in Tech, MacBreak Weekly, Windows Weekly, FLOSS Weekly, and scattered others- for years.

When I'm out and about in the world, I've usually got my headphones on, and when I've got my headphones on, more often than not I've got one of Leo's shows going.

Leo's a smart guy when it comes to computers. He knows his stuff and knows how to get experts to talk about tech in a way that's approachable to non-experts.

He's also a natural showman. He's got real talent as a performer and radio personality and is a natural, warm host.

Sometimes his shows get a bit silly and inside-baseball with regard to the network of tech folks who orbit around the Leosphere- but that's okay.

Leo runs things from a teched out bunker in Petaluma, California, where he hosts a parade of experts and pundits who join him for topic-focused podcasts that are recorded regularly and simulcast live in video.

At any given moment, you can hop over to live.twit.tv and see Leo doing his thing (live or reruns). Go ahead and do it now- you'll probably dccide to stay a while.

What I'd love to see from Apple at their September press event

Theme: "Let's take it up a notch"

• New iPod touches, with cameras, announced. 16GB, 32GB, and 64GB models, priced $199, $299, and $399.
• iPod nano with camera announced. 8GB or 16GB model only (not sure which one, but not both). $149.
• iPod shuffle remains, drops to $49.
• iPod classic discontinued.

Leads to...

The new "iPod tablet" (maybe it has a different name):

• 8, 9, or 10 inch iPod touch-like device.
• Unibody enclosure design.
• SSD hard drive.
• HDMI and DisplayPort out (in addition to headphone / audio out).
• 802.11N WiFi.
• Bluetooth.

Runs a new variant of OS X that is essentially a merger of Snow Leopard and iPhone OS technologies- a system for a new class of device. Supports running most iPhone apps and a new category of apps designed specifically for the tablet platform, based on extended versions of the iPhone app frameworks.

Designed to provide the best portable media experiences available, including native apps from content providers like Amazon and Netflix.

Designed to integrate with home stereos and widescreen TVs with included audio/video out ports, as well as over a WiFi network with Apple TVs and potentially other unannounced Apple-centric network appliances (in the spirit of AirPort Express and Time Capsule, etc.).

Does not support running Mac OS X apps.

Includes a sophisticated remote desktop app (perhaps marketed as "Back to My Mac" or "My Macs") that enables the device to connect to another Mac and seamlessly view its screen and control it from the tablet device. This would possibly be integrated with new functionality in Snow Leopard.

Includes support for Bluetooth keyboards and potentially mice (including cursor support for when a mouse is connected).

Includes advanced graphics hardware and an improved API for developing games, to be sold through the App Store (along with other apps for the new platform).

Includes seamless Internet tethering capabilities with iPhones (depending on service provider support), as well as support for regular Internet through WiFi.

Includes a native Google Voice app, developed in partnership between Apple and Google.

No network provider restrictions on apps (unlike iPhone App Store).

$499 for 64GB model.
$699 for 128GB model.

Snow Leopard announced and available for sale immediately.

And before everyone goes, Apple ties it all into their Mac business for a few minutes.

Slides focus on incredible speed and battery life performance improvements on Snow Leopard systems.

"Snow Leopard is what made the new iPod tablet possible."

Videos from Mac partners demonstrating new categories of apps available on the Snow Leopard platform.

The entire new Apple platform is reviewed.

The iPhone and iPod touch, clearly the best mobile platform.

The new iPod tablet platform- we've taken it up a notch. The best media, the best games.

The Mac with Snow Leopard. "The world's most advanced operating system. Finely tuned."

And while we're on Macs (we're beyond the scope of just the September announcement by now):

MacBook (white) model drops to $899.

MacBook Air low-end model drops to $1199. High-end MacBook Air goes to 4GB of RAM, 256 GB SSD hard drive. $1499.

One more Snow Leopard / iPod tablet thought:

For Macs running Snow Leopard, iPod tablets will be able to seamlessly connect to the computer and serve as a secondary display and/or touch input device.

Grounds crew fail with rare first-person commentary

The original video is here.