My take on the January Apple "tablet" event

Happy 2010 everyone. Now that I have two babies at home, I have an even better excuse for late-night writing.

Here are my hopes (and best-case-imaginable "predictions") for the upcoming Apple announcement on January 27:

Steve Jobs kicks it off: "Today we're here to talk about computers. A new decade. The fifth decade Apple has been making computers."

Then a quick recap of Apple's successes over those decades, from the Apple II to the Mac to the iPod to Mac OS X and the iPhone. And a quick recap of the iTunes Store, mentioning that the 3 billionth iPhone app was recently sold, as well as impressive figures about music, TV shows, and movies sold to date. Concludes that at the moment, with the iPod nano, iPod touch, iPhone, iMac, and MacBook lines, coupled with iLife software and the iTunes Store (and all of the great Mac and iPhone apps developers have created), Apple has successfully fulfilled the digital hub strategy it set for the last decade. It was a pretty great decade. What was the magic ingredient? Software. And it's software that will drive the next decade of innovation as computers continue to evolve.

And now on to the new stuff.

Begins with the very bottom of the Mac line: the Mac Mini.

Introduces a next-generation Mac Mini.
Includes HDMI output.
1TB hard drive standard (options for internal 2TB and maybe a slick way to pool additional storage via USB).
Maybe includes Blu-ray drive- or maybe includes no optical drive at all.
Features a version of Mac OS X Snow Leopard with next-generation Apple TV functionality (Front Row) that allows the device to function as an Apple TV when connected to a large screen.
Functions as a Time Capsule device.
Maybe certain models also function as an AirPort Extreme.

Next up, the big one. Talks about how computers have gone down in size to fit in your pocket, and up in size from laptops to large screens and TVs. What about the "tablet" size? People have tried it. Briefly touches on a few failed approaches, including the classic "pen" touch interface Microsoft was peddling a while ago (and which many tablets still use). Ridicules them (and makes a comment or joke about the Apple Newton). Then talks about netbooks. Ridicules them too. This whole segment feels like the the tongue-in-cheek look at the then-current state of the smartphone market at the time of the iPhone's introduction at Macworld 2007. Maybe Jobs even mentions that- shows a lineup of smartphones pre-iPhone announcement, then shows a lineup of industry-leading smartphones post-iPhone. Notice how they all look like the iPhone now. Talks about how with the iPhone, Apple reinvented the phone interface to be human and flexible. Something you love using. Doing that required a lot of processing power and sophisticated software on the device. Again ridicules the experience of running Windows on a netbook ("it's like a baby computer"). So, Apple has created a new device, with incredible hardware- and breakthrough software.

First talks about the incredible hardware.
Introduces the MacBook Touch (aka "the tablet"):
It's more like a large iPod Touch than a Mac, but it's marketed as a Mac.
10" aluminum unibody enclosure
High-DPI Multi-touch screen- the highest resolution screen on the market, better even than the Nexus One
ARM-powered CPU
"Killer graphics" (NVIDIA Tegra 2 platform?)
Large SSD hard drive (size varies based on model)
At least 2GB of RAM
GPS
Accelerometer and magnetometer
802.11N WiFi
Front and rear-mounted cameras
Empty SIM-card slot to allow mobile data network support

Now talks about the breakthrough software.
A new OS, based on the next generation iPhone OS and including elements of "desktop" Mac OS X, and running a new interface that is an evolution of the iPhone OS interface. The interface will make heavy use of zooming in and out to navigate apps and content and to show off the incredibly high DPI display, and the resolution-independence of apps and content optimized for the device.
Runs iPhone OS apps (in regular size and in a new full-screen size, which will be made available through the iPhone OS SDK).
Allows apps to run in the background (a global switch for background apps is available for users to set- all on or all off- as well as on a per-app basis; will work like the push/fetch functionality in the current iPhone OS). When the device begins to run low on battery, it will automatically disable background processing.
Also runs a new class of apps that are essentially Mac OS X apps with a revised interface suited to the MacBook Touch's dimensions and functionality (such as touch and speech interface, abstracted file system, etc.). It will be relatively easy for Mac OS X developers to create these new interfaces for their apps, assuming their apps are well-written Cocoa apps. And easy for iPhone app developers to adapt their iPhone apps "up" to the MacBook Touch. All of this will be done as seamlessly as possible through Xcode.
In the end, from the user's perspective they're all just "apps", all supported natively on the new OS- and all sold through the app store, which is the only way to add software to the device.
iLife Touch to come with all devices.
iWork Touch available through the app store (for $29.99?).
New UI features include support for augmented reality at the OS level.
Impressive demos from Apple and select 3rd party vendors showcase how augmented reality, along with touch and speech support, make up a whole new class of user experience.
iTunes Touch provides support for augmented reality and social networking. Easily "see" the music that is playing around you (point your device at someone who's using their own device, and see what they're listening to). Twitter and Facebook (and so on) can tap into this augmented reality functionality through an OS API.
Heavy-duty privacy settings are included and default to totally private.

Big enhancements to the iTunes Store to correspond.
iTunes Music Pass- $19.99 a month for unlimited access to (most) music in the iTunes Store. You get to download the music and keep it on up to 5 devices (as opposed to streaming only). If you like a song and want to keep it (aka "buy" it outright), you can do so any time for a discounted price (i.e. a $0.99 song can be bought for $0.69).
iTunes TV Pass- $29.99 a month for unlimited access to a subset of TV programming, depending on which networks participate.
A new category of iTunes item is announced that enables publishers to create new types of media for sale through the iTunes Store. Super high-res multi-touch newspapers and magazines are one example (The New York Times is featured). The format is based on open standards, building upon the iTunes "LP" format unveiled in 2009. Heavy use of HTML 5 and WebKit, and very slick touch and audio-based interface capabilities.
Content and interface can be scaled from iPod Touch and iPhone, up through MacBook Touch, all the way up to TVs (Apple TV/Mac Mini). Also plays in iTunes on Macs and Windows.

Now back to the new Mac Mini (Apple TV). Remember how it had a new Apple TV interface for using on TVs? But what about an interface for smaller screens?
Introduces a new feature on the MacBook Touch that enables it to serve as a complete interface to the Mac Mini (and any Mac). Can run a remote desktop full-screen on the touch surface and control it with some new touch enhancements to Mac OS X that will debut on the new Mac Mini. Initial functionality includes support for screen zooming and basic touch navigation that make it far more practical to use the traditional Mac OS X interface (and applications) with touch control.
Through MobileMe, people can use their MacBook Touches to remotely connect to and control their other Macs. In essence, any network-connected MacBook Touch can connect to and assume the identity of any Mac the user has access to that is running the updated Mac OS X software (again, existing Macs will not get a completely new interface- just a modestly touch-enhanced version of the Mac OS X interface to make it more practical to use through other devices without a mouse or physical keyboard).

One more thing...
MobileMac service announced. Includes a virtualized instance of Mac OS X (running on blazing hardware) that users can subscribe to through MobileMe. The MobileMac can be connected to through any Mac, Windows, or Linux computer through screen sharing. And also from any MacBook Touch.
It's positioned as a great way for people who want to run "the best desktop software in the world" to do so in a centralized, managed environment- accessible through any computer or MacBook Touch device. It's a way to give everyone access to the phenomenal Mac software without needing to buy a new computer. (Windows users, we're looking at you.) It's your Mac in the cloud. Users will be able to connect most of their local devices (such as printers, optical drives, and memory cards) to the MobileMac over the net.
Because of bandwidth constraints, it's not (yet) appropriate for games or media apps- for those, traditional Macs will remain the best solution.

Steve Jobs concludes by summarizing where Apple is headed in the new decade. The Mac remains the core of Apple's computing experience. Mac OS X will continue to evolve, and new Macs that run Mac OS X and use traditional computer form factors (MacBook/MacBook Pros and Mac Pros) will continue to be released. There will be a need for those types of "classic desktop" applications and systems for the foreseeable future. But the next generation will be the devices that run the new OS and use the new interfaces. Perhaps the new OS is called something like OS XI. And perhaps Apple hints at (or even announces) a new iMac that runs OS XI.

That's basically the flow for the January event.

A few odds and ends:

"Dedicated" devices will be discussed at some point, probably in the intro to the MacBook Touch. The 2000s were the decade for great dedicated devices, beginning with the iPod and culminating with devices like the Kindle. Jobs will mention that while some of those devices are very good at certain very specific things, the future belongs to flexible devices, like the iPod touch, the iPhone, and devices running the new OS XI (starting with the MacBook Touch).

The app store will be discussed, and an allusion will be made to some of the challenges Apple has faced with their developers as the app store has taken shape. This is a whole new concept, and there have been growing pains. Two bits of news on this point: 1, approval times have been and will continue to be dramatically reduced. Geometrically so. 2, a new category of app will be introduced that allows developers to bypass the app store review process. These apps will still go through a technical scan to ensure they're built within Apple's programming guidelines and are not blatantly malware. (Perhaps this scan is part of the Xcode compilation process developers use to create the apps themselves, and apps that "pass" the scans locally are digitally signed and then allowed to be uploaded instantly to the app store.) The MacBook Touch OS will treat such apps a little more securely by default- all security and functionality settings exposed by the OS (such as the ability to run in the background) will be set to their most conservative. Content ratings for these apps will be set to the most restrictive by default- though users will be able to soften the content ratings for these apps on an app by app basis. But basically, aside from the technical scan, these apps will bypass the Apple approval process for rapid (even near-instant) approval and publishing to the app store. This method- introduced now as a way for developers to publish with more flexibility- will quickly become the standard method of publishing apps on the app store, paving the way for Apple to eventually get out of the controversial manual app review process and mitigate the potential threat posed by Google's Android platform and other, more "open" approaches to app stores.

Steve Jobs will step down as Apple's CEO in 2010. Probably not announced at the January event. He will remain at Apple with a title like "co-founder" and will continue to advise as the company moves forward- but he will not have day to day responsibilities.

iPhone OS 4.0 will be announced, bringing elements of the new OS XI to iPhones and iPod touches (in varying degrees, based on the device). It will ship right around the MacBook Touch launch window. A beta SDK will be released imminently, alongside the SDK for OS XI.

Further out in the year, new iPod touches and iPhones will be released that are refined to exploit iPhone OS 4.0. They will have dramatically better battery life compared to previous generation devices.

Mac OS X 10.7 will be announced and released at some point this year. It will be a very subtle refinement from 10.6 from the traditional OS point of view- but it will be support all of the functionality described above that enables Macs that run it to interact with devices running OS XI.

As mentioned earlier, a new generation of iMac will be released at some point in 2010. It may include a multi-touch screen, but will be designed to be controlled optimally by devices running OS XI, just like the new Mac Mini. The new iMac will run a "desktop" version of OS XI that is basically Mac OS X 10.7 and OS XI on one device, allowing the iMac to function as a traditional Mac running traditional Mac software, and as a next-generation device that can run OS XI apps.

Ah...

Okay, fantasy complete now, time to go change some diapers. ;)