Here's an interesting Wired article from a few weeks back about Amazon's Kindle. The basic issue at stake: is there a large enough market of "readers" out there to justify the development and sale of an "e-reader" device?
To me, the development of the Kindle was a strategic decision by Amazon to do something proactive about the fact that traditional book sales are headed nowhere but down. Cultural, social, and technological trends all point toward people adopting other forms of entertainment (TV, movies, music, the web, games, social networking, etc.). So given the fact that books are fizzling out, Amazon offered the Kindle- coupled with its easy to use, omni-present, built-in online store- as the next evolutionary step beyond the traditional book.
Are they succeeding?
It's tough to say at this point.
Reuters quotes a Citigroup analyst who predicts 2008 sales of up to 380,000 units (more than predicted), and
rumors have been floating around that Amazon has new devices on the horizon, including one aimed at students.
So it would seem that, based mostly on anecdotal evidence, the initial Kindle device has not been a failure, and Amazon is committed to releasing future versions.
But to me, for the Kindle to really take off, Amazon needs to tweak a few aspects of the device/store combination, and then re-position the Kindle more as a digital platform, and less as a specific device.
The biggest innovation behind the Kindle is the store. Amazon has made it very easy to browse, sample, and buy books directly on the Kindle device, at almost any time, thanks to its well designed store software and free always-on cell connection. They've also nicely integrated the Kindle store into their Amazon account system, which makes it easy for users to buy Kindle books while browsing the web (which automatically appear on their Kindles), and to keep all of their purchased Kindle books up on the Amazon cloud, available for download to future Kindles.
This is a very customer-centric way to approach digital sales, in contrast to Apple's iTunes music and video model, which sells the user the file itself. If the specific downloaded iTunes file is lost or deleted, it's gone- Apple does not allow users to re-download previously purchased music or video (but they do allow this for iPhone apps, incidentally).
So Amazon got the basics of the store mechanics right. And on top of that, the content selection is pretty good and growing. Currently, Amazon claims that 98 of 112 current New York Times bestsellers are available in Kindle format, and Jeff Bezos has stated that he hopes to eventually have all of Amazon's books available in Kindle format.
Presumably, the Kindle store will get to the point where the majority of mass market titles are available, and will bust open a market for titles that would not have been published at all in the traditional book world, where printing and distribution costs are high. With the Kindle, distribution costs are extremely small (essentially nothing at scale), so books that have a potential audience of thousands- even just hundreds- of people are now perfectly viable publishing targets.
The Kindle device itself is fine and offers a few advantages over traditional books. To me, the biggest advantage is the comfort I find in not having to pin a book open or adjust my position in bed as I change pages (don't ask). It's also great to have instant access to a dictionary, add bookmarks, and search my library (very useful for those moments when you ask yourself, "What was the last thing that happened with this character again?").
The biggest disadvantage to reading on a Kindle is the lack of a physical representation of the books I'm reading. This point is antithetical to the whole notion of digital content, and I suspect most people don't feel this way. But I miss having books on my bookshelf. I like looking at my collection and seeing a visualization of all of my literary consumption accomplishments, and I like putting them on display for other people to peruse when they come over. This isn't for egotistical reasons- many of my books are Stephen King- but I like putting my fiction and non-fiction tastes on display as conversation starters. With the Kindle, there's no social artifact of the fact that I recently read Scott McClellan's book, for example.
Perhaps someday the walls of our houses will be full-size digital displays, that have different regions on them to mimic bookshelves with digital representations of books you've read, a section for digital photos and artwork, a digital stereo system at another region, a large, 16x9 region for watching "TV" content, etc.
Make it all multi-touch, totally configurable, and integrated with all of your digital content through the Internet- but I'm getting ahead of myself.
Anyway, the bottom line for me is that the Kindle and the Kindle store are effective starting points, but need some tweaking to become home runs from my perspective. I'd like to see the following enhancements:
<> Free Kindle versions of all book purchases made through Amazon. This may sound wasteful, but if I could buy a "real" book for my shelf and get free a copy for my Kindle, I would gladly do it, even if it was more expensive than buying just the Kindle version. Plus, providing Kindle versions of books for free with every book purchase would entice people to experiment with e-book reading, without having to jump in whole-hog. And it would give people a reason to buy a book from Amazon as opposed to any other book retailer- a free pass to the future.
<> Expand the devices that can connect to the Kindle store and turn it into a platform. I should be able to connect to my Amazon account through my iPhone and access my Kindle library and buy books. My bookmarks should transparently sync between all of my devices. And I should be able to view the titles in my Kindle library on my computer, too. Limiting the Kindle experience solely to Amazon Kindle hardware devices really narrows the available audience and limits the benefits that come from the inherent flexibility of a digital medium.
<> Allow me to lend Kindle books to other people. The DRM required to prevent piracy of digital content is understandable from the perspective that if people can make multiple copies of something, they no longer need to purchase multiple copies. But lending and sharing is an inherent part of the book experience, and sharing is also a core part of the online social experience. So a next-generation digital platform that attempts to replace the book needs to, by definition, facilitate easy sharing. I should be able to "lend" a Kindle book to someone else. When I do, I should lose all access to that book from all of the devices that I have- so only one person has access to it at a given time. If I ever want to take my "copy" back before the lendee has returned it, I should be able to "recall" my copy, which would restore my ability to read it and wipe it from the other person's devices.
<> Amazon should grab the academic textbook market and attack it head-on, releasing textbook content at dramatically reduced prices. I've always thought that college textbooks were an out and out scam- only someone selling mortgage-backed securities, gasoline, or cigarettes could think it's reasonable to charge students $75 or more per book. The digital format provides the perfect solution to this crock- dramatically cheaper prices, and the prospect of carrying all of your textbooks around in a single, light device.
<> Amazon should continue to advance the state of the art in e-book hardware, releasing thinner, lighter models that incorporate better display technology, backlighting, and more effective design (that doesn't result in the current Kindle's propensity for accidental page turning).
In conclusion, I'd say that the Kindle has tremendous potential as a platform. It is in Amazon's interest to provide the easiest and most full-featured e-book readers available, but if that's the extent of their vision for the Kindle, I think it's short-sighted.
