Prediction: Apple will license Mac OS X Server

I don't really like to make predictions, because a) I'm usually wrong, and b) a lot of people on the Internet make predictions and are wrong, and I don't want to be in their company.

But this one popped into my head last night, and I figured I'd share it here so that on the off-chance that I'm actually right, I will have "scored a big one". (Anyone want to volunteer to keep score?)

No one really knows what's going to happen once Apple begins to transition to Intel chips. Once Mac OS X works well on Intel, there will be nothing technical standing in the way of Apple either selling OS X to PC users or allowing certain PC manufacturers to sell systems preloaded with OS X.

I don't think Apple is going to sell OS X to PC users- at least, not in the short or medium term. Too much of what makes a Mac a Mac has to do with the styling of the hardware and the tight alignment of both its hardware and software. I also do not think that Apple is going to invite a company like Dell to sell "Mac" systems preconfigured with Mac OS X. While Apple would be able to dictate the system specifications in such a licensing arrangement (and as such more or less control the hardware/software aspect of things), I believe Apple wants to remain the only company that makes Macs.

However, Mac OS X Server is another story. OS X Server is basically Mac OS X with a bunch of server services and graphical management software bundled in. Server is a powerful OS that provides the server fabric for all types of Macintosh networks, as well as offering services for Windows and Unix clients. Since Mac OS X is essentially Unix, it's not unreasonable to compare it to a Linux server with a world-class interface.

Apple's been trying to gain inroads into the enterprise, and Mac OS X Server is the way to do it. IT departments who are frustrated with aging Windows servers and who today are considering switching to Linux would probably be even more tempted to go with OS X Server- particularly if OS X Server ran on standardized hardware.

In this scenario, I see Apple choosing a few "server partners"- say, Dell and HP- and allowing them to bundle Mac OS X Server on certain tightly controlled Intel-based server systems. There would be some type of hardware lock that would allow OS X to run on those specific machines, but not to be installed on other, non-blessed machines. Apple will not want OS X "getting out" and running on systems that it can't control.

This would allow IT departments to buy OS X servers from their existing server vendors. These servers will, essentially, continue to offer Windows clients the same services they had with Windows, but without the associated costs and headaches of administering Windows. And any company toying with the idea of purchasing some Intel-based Macs for end-users would be in a better position to do so with OS X Server running their network.

So here's my prediction, real simple: If and when Apple allows Mac OS X to be installed on non-Apple hardware, the first step will be Mac OS X Server running on equipment from industry leading server vendors.